Tuesday, December 22, 2009
THE PULL BACK SLOWS, COULD MOVE BACK UP
BONDS, YEN FALLING
STOCKS, EURO, OIL FALLING
MAY PULL GOLD LOWER
DOLLAR CHART STARTING TO CATCH UP TO REAL TIME
DOLLAR HAS DROPPED
THIS RALLY STARTED AT 5:10AM PST AND ONLY 10,000 CONTRACTS UP VOLUME HAVE TRADED SO FAR...NOT AN INCREDIBLE RALLY RELATIVE TO REALLY BIG ONES
THIS IS ONLY A $9 RALLY FROM A VERY LOW GOLD
PRICE. GOLD IS NOW PULLING BACK AND WILL
EITHER CONSOLIDATE HERE AND MOVE HIGHER
OR TAKE THIS RALLY BACK. SHORTS HAD TO BE
COVERING ON THIS RALLY SOMEWHAT BUT THE
SELLING PRESSURE IS COMING BACK IN
GOLD MOVES HIGHER, VOLUME GROWS STRONGER, A PULL BACK IS DUE HERE
EURO JUMPS HIGHER
STOCKS FALL THEN RALLY
OIL UP SOME
BONDS, YEN RISE IN STEPS
DOLLAR CHART NOT CURRENT YET
BUT DOLLAR SHOULD HAVE FALLEN
GOLD MOVES UP ON GOOD VOLUME, BUT NOT STRONG VOLUME
EURO CONSOLIDATING AFTER ITS LITTLE RUNUP
COULD MOVE HIGHER AND PULL GOLD UP
VERY TRICKY TO CALL A BIG GOLD RALLY HERE
GOLD NEARING THE 75% RETRACE POINT AT 1077.8 FOR THE ENTIRE MOVE UP FROM 1028 TO 1227.50
READ DAN NORCINI'S COMMENTS POSTED BELOW
SCROLL DOWN.
SEE HIS CHART AT JSMINESET.COM
Monday, December 21, 2009
DAN NORCINI'S COMMENTS
FROM JSMINESET.COM
Hourly Action In Gold From Trader Dan Posted: Dec 21 2009 By: Dan Norcini Post Edited: December 21, 2009 at 4:42 pm
Filed under: Trader Dan Norcini
Dear CIGAs,
There appeared to be more carry trade unwinding in today’s session with noisy chatter about the “improving” US economy engendering an interest rate hike next year. I don’t buy it but it is the current market psychology. That, in combination with the woes besetting some of the various Euro member countries, has resulted in an exodus out of the Euro and into the Dollar. Even the Yen is getting sold down today. Down went most of the commodity world once again with very few exceptions. That is the proof that the gold selling is related to the carry trade unwind.
Ominously, bonds have crashed through very strong support at the bottom of what has been a 5 month long trading range. Should they fail to recover this level before Christmas, that market could be sending a signal that long term interest rates are on the rise. There is still some chart support just above 115 with major support near 112^ 16 that would have to give way however before we could say that with certainty. I am sure that the home building industry is cheering such an occurrence on!
Strength in the equity markets has brought price up near the 1110 level on the S&P with the bulls hoping to force an upside breakout and a new leg higher. Glad to know that the equity crowd feels such warm and fuzzy feelings towards the prospects of the US economy moving forward particularly in light of the despicable manner in which the political hacks managed to buy and bribe enough Senators to corral 60 votes guaranteeing a government takeover of 1/6 of the entire US economy. Maybe Wall Street figures that will be good for business. Excuse me while I note one more nail in the coffin of the US Dollar.
The Dollar however, for now, continues moving higher and is now about 100 points away from the 40 week moving average that comes in near 79.36. I am still waiting to see if it can best that level. Foreign Central Banks are beginning to take note and getting ready to act accordingly in their divestment programs.
As long as the greenback continues to hold steady and move higher, gold will have difficulty shrugging off a “sell the rally” mentality among stale longs and eager shorts. It is going to take a violation of technical levels in the Dollar to the downside and in gold to the upside to force Dollar long liquidation and gold bear short covering. So far we are not yet seeing any of that. The problem that gold now has is that the hedge funds are on the sell side and until those algorithms of theirs flip to buy mode, the carry trade unwind is going to continue. Markets that live by the technical breakout also die by the technical breakdown and for now, momentum is with the move lower. When that downside momentum dries up, price will reverse. Until then, we just sit and observe.
A large portion of the price gains that the HUI made during the month of November have now gone up in smoke but that index is approaching oversold levels on its daily price chart. One would therefore expect that selling pressure should begin to subside here. Given the decreasing levels of liquidity, the price swings back to the upside could be just as violent in nature as the sell offs have been. Personally, the last two weeks of the trading year are a general waste of time as people are buying and selling for book-closing purposes, vacations, etc. so like I have said repeatedly, try not to get too worried about price gyrations during this time frame. They really do not mean as much as some analysts would have you believe.
Hourly Action In Gold From Trader Dan Posted: Dec 21 2009 By: Dan Norcini Post Edited: December 21, 2009 at 4:42 pm
Filed under: Trader Dan Norcini
Dear CIGAs,
There appeared to be more carry trade unwinding in today’s session with noisy chatter about the “improving” US economy engendering an interest rate hike next year. I don’t buy it but it is the current market psychology. That, in combination with the woes besetting some of the various Euro member countries, has resulted in an exodus out of the Euro and into the Dollar. Even the Yen is getting sold down today. Down went most of the commodity world once again with very few exceptions. That is the proof that the gold selling is related to the carry trade unwind.
Ominously, bonds have crashed through very strong support at the bottom of what has been a 5 month long trading range. Should they fail to recover this level before Christmas, that market could be sending a signal that long term interest rates are on the rise. There is still some chart support just above 115 with major support near 112^ 16 that would have to give way however before we could say that with certainty. I am sure that the home building industry is cheering such an occurrence on!
Strength in the equity markets has brought price up near the 1110 level on the S&P with the bulls hoping to force an upside breakout and a new leg higher. Glad to know that the equity crowd feels such warm and fuzzy feelings towards the prospects of the US economy moving forward particularly in light of the despicable manner in which the political hacks managed to buy and bribe enough Senators to corral 60 votes guaranteeing a government takeover of 1/6 of the entire US economy. Maybe Wall Street figures that will be good for business. Excuse me while I note one more nail in the coffin of the US Dollar.
The Dollar however, for now, continues moving higher and is now about 100 points away from the 40 week moving average that comes in near 79.36. I am still waiting to see if it can best that level. Foreign Central Banks are beginning to take note and getting ready to act accordingly in their divestment programs.
As long as the greenback continues to hold steady and move higher, gold will have difficulty shrugging off a “sell the rally” mentality among stale longs and eager shorts. It is going to take a violation of technical levels in the Dollar to the downside and in gold to the upside to force Dollar long liquidation and gold bear short covering. So far we are not yet seeing any of that. The problem that gold now has is that the hedge funds are on the sell side and until those algorithms of theirs flip to buy mode, the carry trade unwind is going to continue. Markets that live by the technical breakout also die by the technical breakdown and for now, momentum is with the move lower. When that downside momentum dries up, price will reverse. Until then, we just sit and observe.
A large portion of the price gains that the HUI made during the month of November have now gone up in smoke but that index is approaching oversold levels on its daily price chart. One would therefore expect that selling pressure should begin to subside here. Given the decreasing levels of liquidity, the price swings back to the upside could be just as violent in nature as the sell offs have been. Personally, the last two weeks of the trading year are a general waste of time as people are buying and selling for book-closing purposes, vacations, etc. so like I have said repeatedly, try not to get too worried about price gyrations during this time frame. They really do not mean as much as some analysts would have you believe.
DOLLAR RISING, GOLD PULLS BACK FROM THE 1ST UP LEG BACK UP
BONDS, YEN TURNING UP
OIL FALLS
STOCKS SIDEWAYS TO UP ON THEIR HIGHS
GOLD STARTS ITS 2ND LEG UP
GOLD ALMOST ALWAYS HITS THE 75% RETRACE POINTS, IT MAY EVEN GO DOWN TO THE YELLOW UPTREND CHANNEL LOWER LINE
STOCKS MOVE HIGHER AFTER A PAUSE TO CONSOLIDATE
BONDS, YEN MOVE LOWER
EURO STILL TRENDING DOWN, BUT MAY TURN UP HERE
GOLD STILL TESTING THE LOWS
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