Sunday, January 31, 2010
GOLD FORMING A LITTLE LEDGE TO FALL FROM AS EURO TURNS BACK DOWN
GOLD MAY ONLY DROP DOWN TO RETEST THE LOWS, BUT COULD GO LOWER. ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE NOW IN THIS MARKET
5 MINUTE MARCH 2010 EURO CHART (delayed prices)
EURO MOVES LOWER BUT MAY BE TURNING BACK UP RIGHT NOW AT 5:32PM PST
GOLD TURNS BACK UP AFTER MOVING DOWN TO THE 1ST 75% RETRACE POINT
GOLD WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE IN THIS HERKY JERKY TRADING PATTERN MOVING UP AND DOWN UNEXPECTEDLY, SO YOU SHOULD TAKE YOUR SHORT TERM PROFITS THE SECOND YOU HAVE THEM, AS EVERYONE ELSE WILL BE.GOLD SELLS OFF AS EURO MOVES LOWER
GOLD FALLS AFTER A QUICK FAKE OUT UP MOVE AS THE GOLD BASHERS GO TO WORK
GT REQUESTS YOUR COMMENTS
I have installed a visitor counter on my blogs that shows how many page loads, unique visitors, and returning visitors visit each of my blogs.
It DOES NOT acquire ANY personal information from visitors.
It ONLY counts visits to my blogs.
I have been surprised to find out how often some of you visit this blog
during the day and evening.
I'm sure some of you use it more than others, but we have up to 20 users
or so that I can deduce use the blog each day.
I would appreciate your comments about how you use the charts and comments
and how you feel about what I have been doing so far.
It's very time consuming to post these charts AND trade at the same time.
But, the value to me is that it keeps me focused on every move the markets makes
and I learn more about how the market works and morphs each moment as it
evolves into the RUNAWAY BULL MARKET that it surely will become very soon.
Please let me hear from ALL MY USERS so I can provide the most effective charts
and comments possible.
I'm only here to contribute to the knowledge of all precious metal traders so you
aren't corrupted by the vast amount of false information that pervades this market
and that will keep you from saving, and possibly increasing, your assets before the
final collapse.
Please post your comments on this blog, or on TALKBACKTOGOLDTRADER BLOG.at:
http://talkbacktogoldtrader.blogspot.com/
The best of good fortune to you all,
GT
It DOES NOT acquire ANY personal information from visitors.
It ONLY counts visits to my blogs.
I have been surprised to find out how often some of you visit this blog
during the day and evening.
I'm sure some of you use it more than others, but we have up to 20 users
or so that I can deduce use the blog each day.
I would appreciate your comments about how you use the charts and comments
and how you feel about what I have been doing so far.
It's very time consuming to post these charts AND trade at the same time.
But, the value to me is that it keeps me focused on every move the markets makes
and I learn more about how the market works and morphs each moment as it
evolves into the RUNAWAY BULL MARKET that it surely will become very soon.
Please let me hear from ALL MY USERS so I can provide the most effective charts
and comments possible.
I'm only here to contribute to the knowledge of all precious metal traders so you
aren't corrupted by the vast amount of false information that pervades this market
and that will keep you from saving, and possibly increasing, your assets before the
final collapse.
Please post your comments on this blog, or on TALKBACKTOGOLDTRADER BLOG.at:
http://talkbacktogoldtrader.blogspot.com/
The best of good fortune to you all,
GT
Friday, January 29, 2010
DAN NORCINI'S FRIDAY NIGHT COMMENTS
Hourly Action In Gold From Trader Dan Posted: Jan 29 2010 By: Dan Norcini Post Edited: January 29, 2010 at 3:02 pm
Filed under: Trader Dan Norcini
Dear CIGAs,
The big news today was the 4th quarter US GDP number. The shocking number of 5.7% growth, the fastest pace in six years, far exceeded the expectation of most analysts (Count me in as being extremely sceptical of that number especially with unemployment at current levels). That sent equities on a tear higher and while gold has recently been moving in lockstep with those, today was a turnaround from that pattern. It was taken back down through the $1,080 level as the Dollar shot upwards making mincemeat of yesterday’s sellers.
The recent pattern of the Dollar moving lower on “good” news was disrupted as traders bid the greenback higher on the “happy news”. At that point it must have been moving higher purely on momentum because the equity markets did a complete “about face” dropping well off their highs and moving into negative territory at one time. What makes the initial move higher in the equities even more suspect was the action in the bond market, which moved up more than half a point – that is not what I would expect from bond traders if they were convinced the economy was on the mend and ready for a stronger recovery. If bond traders thought for one moment that the growth number served up by the Feds was (a.) realistic, and/or (b.) sustainable, they would have taken the bonds down sharply out of concern of Fed rate hikes and liquidity withdrawal measures.
Further confirmation that the bond traders’ dubiousness is appropriate would be the bearish chart pattern in crude oil. That market certainly is not acting like energy traders believe the economy is growing at a 5.7% clip or the price of crude would not be dropping $10 barrel from $83 to $73. Heck, while we are at it, if the feds would create a cash for old refrigerators program, a cash for old motorcycles program and a cash for old television sets program, we could probably get a GDP number up near 9% this quarter and go on to pass China in our rate of growth. Like I said earlier, a 5.7% number sounds like a pile of hooey to me – then again I own a cow that just laid a huge egg big enough for 50 omelets. Takes about the same amount of intelligence to believe the latter as the former.
There are so many mixed signals being given off by the various bellwether markets that attempting to get a read on things is becoming an exercise in futility. Between constant government intervention and surreptitious rigging operations, combined with hedge fund algorithm madness, money is ricocheting back and forth in such chaotic fashion, that many traders are getting chopped to shreds. That is resulting in more and more players moving to short term trades, which then makes volatility increase all the more. Probably the best thing to do for the average investor is use the weekly charts which tend to filter out so much of this short term “noise” that seems to be getting louder to the point of annoying.
Back to gold – speculative long liquidation continues its rather torrid pace dropping off substantially in yesterday’s down market. Both longs and shorts are getting out with the shorts having their intentions frustrated by the buyer of size that continues to make their presence felt below and near the $1,080 region. It is evident that physical demand for gold is helping to stem the rate of price decline in gold. Bears are continuing to pressure the metal trying to reach further fund stops below the $1074 level but are being stymied by the strong buying that is occurring. The longer gold can bounce back from the current lows near $1,080, the stronger that support becomes technically as tentative speculative longs will begin dipping their feet in the water with nervous shorts quickly ringing the cash register when prices dip down near this level. That serves to reinforce the level further. As usual, time will make it clear for us. I am encouraged however to see this determined buyer continuing to surface on these selling bouts. Could it be China or India?
For now, the technical posture in gold remains bearish for the short term so rallies will continue to find willing sellers until price moves back above the $1100 level and remains there for a least two consecutive sessions. Support remains near the $1075 level with another level of support beneath that at $1,030 – $1, 025. Incidentally, February gold enters its delivery period next week so the speculative action will be focused on the April contract. It will be interesting to see what we get in the way of gold deliveries, not that most of us believe anything that the Comex warehouses report. You could probably have 8000 contracts of gold stopped and the warehouses would report a movement of 1,200 ounces out.
I will send up a monthly gold chart later on today.
One of the big problems that the gold bulls have is the poor technical performance of the gold shares. It is difficult to get too excited about the metal’s prospects when you have hedge funds leaning on the shares with their ratio spreads. We really need to see the HUI get above 407 – 410 to garner some bullish excitement and give us some signs of life. For right now, about the best thing I can say for the shares is that many of them are extremely oversold on the daily charts.
SEE CHARTS AT: http://jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/January2910Gold.pdf
Filed under: Trader Dan Norcini
Dear CIGAs,
The big news today was the 4th quarter US GDP number. The shocking number of 5.7% growth, the fastest pace in six years, far exceeded the expectation of most analysts (Count me in as being extremely sceptical of that number especially with unemployment at current levels). That sent equities on a tear higher and while gold has recently been moving in lockstep with those, today was a turnaround from that pattern. It was taken back down through the $1,080 level as the Dollar shot upwards making mincemeat of yesterday’s sellers.
The recent pattern of the Dollar moving lower on “good” news was disrupted as traders bid the greenback higher on the “happy news”. At that point it must have been moving higher purely on momentum because the equity markets did a complete “about face” dropping well off their highs and moving into negative territory at one time. What makes the initial move higher in the equities even more suspect was the action in the bond market, which moved up more than half a point – that is not what I would expect from bond traders if they were convinced the economy was on the mend and ready for a stronger recovery. If bond traders thought for one moment that the growth number served up by the Feds was (a.) realistic, and/or (b.) sustainable, they would have taken the bonds down sharply out of concern of Fed rate hikes and liquidity withdrawal measures.
Further confirmation that the bond traders’ dubiousness is appropriate would be the bearish chart pattern in crude oil. That market certainly is not acting like energy traders believe the economy is growing at a 5.7% clip or the price of crude would not be dropping $10 barrel from $83 to $73. Heck, while we are at it, if the feds would create a cash for old refrigerators program, a cash for old motorcycles program and a cash for old television sets program, we could probably get a GDP number up near 9% this quarter and go on to pass China in our rate of growth. Like I said earlier, a 5.7% number sounds like a pile of hooey to me – then again I own a cow that just laid a huge egg big enough for 50 omelets. Takes about the same amount of intelligence to believe the latter as the former.
There are so many mixed signals being given off by the various bellwether markets that attempting to get a read on things is becoming an exercise in futility. Between constant government intervention and surreptitious rigging operations, combined with hedge fund algorithm madness, money is ricocheting back and forth in such chaotic fashion, that many traders are getting chopped to shreds. That is resulting in more and more players moving to short term trades, which then makes volatility increase all the more. Probably the best thing to do for the average investor is use the weekly charts which tend to filter out so much of this short term “noise” that seems to be getting louder to the point of annoying.
Back to gold – speculative long liquidation continues its rather torrid pace dropping off substantially in yesterday’s down market. Both longs and shorts are getting out with the shorts having their intentions frustrated by the buyer of size that continues to make their presence felt below and near the $1,080 region. It is evident that physical demand for gold is helping to stem the rate of price decline in gold. Bears are continuing to pressure the metal trying to reach further fund stops below the $1074 level but are being stymied by the strong buying that is occurring. The longer gold can bounce back from the current lows near $1,080, the stronger that support becomes technically as tentative speculative longs will begin dipping their feet in the water with nervous shorts quickly ringing the cash register when prices dip down near this level. That serves to reinforce the level further. As usual, time will make it clear for us. I am encouraged however to see this determined buyer continuing to surface on these selling bouts. Could it be China or India?
For now, the technical posture in gold remains bearish for the short term so rallies will continue to find willing sellers until price moves back above the $1100 level and remains there for a least two consecutive sessions. Support remains near the $1075 level with another level of support beneath that at $1,030 – $1, 025. Incidentally, February gold enters its delivery period next week so the speculative action will be focused on the April contract. It will be interesting to see what we get in the way of gold deliveries, not that most of us believe anything that the Comex warehouses report. You could probably have 8000 contracts of gold stopped and the warehouses would report a movement of 1,200 ounces out.
I will send up a monthly gold chart later on today.
One of the big problems that the gold bulls have is the poor technical performance of the gold shares. It is difficult to get too excited about the metal’s prospects when you have hedge funds leaning on the shares with their ratio spreads. We really need to see the HUI get above 407 – 410 to garner some bullish excitement and give us some signs of life. For right now, about the best thing I can say for the shares is that many of them are extremely oversold on the daily charts.
SEE CHARTS AT: http://jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/January2910Gold.pdf
THIS WEEK IN GOLD TRADING
GOLD HAS TRADED IN A SIDEWAYS RANGE FOR
THE WEEK WITH A SLIGHT TREND LOWER AND
NEARING THE LOWER BLACK MAJOR UPTREND
CHANNEL LINE WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT GOLD
UNTIL A MAJOR EVENT OCCURS THAT WILL VAULT
GOLD TO NEW HIGHS
CHANNELS WTHIN CHANNELS WITH THE BLACK MAJOR UPTREND CHANNEL CONTROLLING THEM ALL
THE BLACK MAJOR UPTREND CHANNEL LOWER LINE
IS IN THE 1060 TO 1050 AREA AND SHOULD PROVIDE
GOOD SUPPORT. BUT IF VIOLATED, SHOULD NOT
ALLOW GOLD TO MOVE MUCH LOWER FOR ANY BUT
THE BRIEFEST OF MOMENTS.
OUR MOST CURRENT SITUATION
GOLD IS DOWN $216 FROM THE TOP.
IT IS NEAR THE LOWER MAJOR BLACK UPTREND
CHANNEL LINE WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE SUPPORT
GOLD HAS BEEN PUSHED TO THIS LEVEL BY BULLION
BANKS SELLING COUPLED WITH MANIPULATION OF
THE DOLLAR "TO MAKE THINGS LOOK GOOD".
UNDERNEATH IT ALL, THE DOLLAR IS BEING DEVALUED
BY OVERPRINTING IT WHICH IS LIKE POURING MORE
WATER IN THE KOOL-AID TO MAKE THE KOOL-AID GO
FURTHER. BUT WHOEVER GETS THE 'DEVALUED' KOOL-AID
IS CHEATED BY RECEIVING LESS VALUABLE KOOL-AID
THE BIG PICTURE
THIS CURRENT PULL BACK IS A BLIP IN THE OVERALL
CLIMB OF GOLD SINCE YEAR 2000 WHEN IT WAS IN
THE $200 PER OUNCE LEVEL
YOU HAVE TO BE A CONFIDENT, AGGRESSIVE TRADER TO MAKE ANY MONEY IN THIS MARKET NOW AS GOLD IS JUST TOO VOLATILE TO RELY ON LONG PRICE RUNS
YOU HAVE TO BELIEVE IN THE FIBONACCI NUMBERS
AND WATCH THE VOLUMES AS WELL AS STOCKS, OIL,
EURO, YEN AND BONDS AS WELL AS THE DOLLAR AND
ALL IN REAL TIME OR YOU ARE GOING TO GET WIPED
OUT.
GOLD BREAKS OUT OF THE WHITE DOWNTREND CHANNEL
MAY FIND SUPPORT ON THE TOP WHITE LINE AS
GOLD PULLS BACK
OVER 1K CONTRACTS ON THE $3 JUMP UP. COULD
HAVE BEEN A ONE TIME ROLL OVER BEFORE THE CLOSE
GETS TOO CLOSE
GOLD CONTINUES IN THIS TRADING RANGE ALONG THE LOWS
AT LEAST BUYERS ARE HOLDING THIS LEVEL AS
PER DAN NORCINI'S COMMENTS YESTERDAY WHICH
IS A PLUS FOR THOSE WHO WANT TO SEE GOLD GO
BACK UP
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